Identification and communication of uncertainties of phenomenological models in PSA
Activity Acronym:
SOS-2.1
Authors:
Kaisa Simola, Urho Pulkkinen
Abstract:
This report aims at presenting a view upon uncertainty analysis of phenomenological
models with an emphasis on the identification and documentation of various types of
uncertainties and assumptions in the modelling of the phenomena. In an uncertainty
analysis, it is essential to include and document all unclear issues, in order to obtain
a maximal coverage of unresolved issues. This holds independently on their nature
or type of the issues. The classification of uncertainties is needed in the
decomposition of the problem and it helps in the identification of means for
uncertainty reduction. Further, an enhanced documentation serves to evaluate the
applicability of the results to various risk-informed applications.