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| NKS Programme Area: | NKS-B | | Research Area: | Radioecological assessments | | Report Number: | NKS-488 | | Report Title: | Assessment of climate change's impacts on radioecological safety of subpolar and Nordic marine environment: Final Report from the NKS-B ANTHROPIC | | Activity Acronym: | ANTHROPIC | | Authors: | Mu Lin, Jixin Qiao, Sven P. Nielsen, Gang Lin, Yanchun He, Annette Samuelsen, Emil Jeansson, Kjartan Guðnason, Karin Aquilonius, Pål Andersson, Anna Maria Blixt Buhr, Vesa-Pekka Vartti, Pia Keski-Jaskari, | | Abstract: | This NKS-B ANTHROPIC project assesses climate-change impacts on radionuclide transport in Nordic and Arctic marine environments and associated radioecological risks using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM).
NorESM was evaluated using historical data of reprocessing-derived radiotracers and chemical tracers, showing good performance, particularly in the Nordic Seas.
We simulated radionuclide transport from authorized discharges and a hypothetical nuclear accident under two different climate scenarios for 2015-2049. For authorized discharges, projections show largely steady-state transport along major pathways, with regional changes including increased flux into the Arctic Ocean via the Barents Sea and enhanced accumulation in the Beaufort Gyre. Few significant differences were observed between climate scenarios in the Nordic Seas. For hypothetical accident, the warmer climate showed lower long-term concentrations along the Norwegian coast, higher concentrations in central Nordic Seas, and lower concentrations in the Baltic Sea.
Risk assessments indicate that for authorized discharges, estimated doses remain well below public exposure limits with minimal climate-induced changes. For accidental releases, potentially significant impacts were identified in Danish, Swedish, and Norwegian waters, with cesium isotopes dominating dose contributions.
These findings suggest that current authorized discharge practices likely remain acceptable under near-term climate scenarios, but the long-term impacts on the radioecological risk and emergency preparedness needs to be investigated. | | Keywords: | Radionuclide transport, Climate change, Nordic marine environment, Earth system model | | Publication date: | 23 Oct 2024 | | ISBN: | 978-87-7893-584-7 | | Number of downloads: | 76 | | Download: |  NKS-488.pdf |
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