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| NKS Programme Area: | NKS-B | | Research Area: | Emergency preparedness | | Report Number: | NKS-498 | | Report Title: | DISpersion of radioActivity fRom nuclear boMbs (DISARM) – final report | | Activity Acronym: | DISARM | | Authors: | Jens Havskov Sørensen (co-ordinator), Kristian Holten Møller, Kasper Skjold Tølløse, Lennart Robertson, Leif Å. Persson, Daniel Vågberg, Jan Pehrsson, Henrik Roed, Elias Pagh Senstius, Naeem Ul Syed, Anders Axelsson, Anna Maria Blixt Buhr, Jan Burman, Jonas Lindgren, Mikael Moring, Tuomas Peltonen, Mikko Voutilainen, | | Abstract: | The current geopolitical situation implies an increased risk of use of nuclear weapons, the detonation of which can imply atmospheric dispersion of radioactivi-ty posing a risk to the public also at long distances from the detonation. Thus, there is a need for developing new, or improving existing, model prediction tools for such events aiming at enhanced civil protection. Accordingly, the overall inten-tion with the DISARM project was to improve the capability of predicting the at-mospheric dispersion of radioactivity from nuclear explosions.
The model system describes the initial spatial distribution of radioactive matter when stabilization has occurred around ten minutes after the detonation. This ef-fective initial spatial distribution will be taken over by an operational atmospheric dispersion model.
Existing descriptions and parameterizations based on parameters observed in the field have been studied and improved by incorporating recently developed de-pendences on meteorological parameters.
An interface to nuclear decision-support systems has been developed. From ei-ther field observations of the geometry of the stabilized cloud, or from the yield in TNT equivalent as well as the height of burst, the interface calculates the parame-ters, which are required by the atmospheric dispersion model. These parameters are transferred to the dispersion model included in the request for dispersion cal-culation.
Previous NKS-B projects have demonstrated that inherent case-dependent mete-orological uncertainties play a significant role for the atmospheric dispersion model results. Corresponding methods are developed and applied to selected cases in order to quantify the meteorological uncertainties of the predicted radioactive plumes from nuclear explosions. | | Keywords: | nuclear emergency preparedness, atmospheric dispersion modelling, nuclear weapons, detonation, stabilized cloud, particle size distribution | | Publication date: | 02 Apr 2025 | | ISBN: | 978-87-7893-596-0 | | Number of downloads: | 16 | | Download: |  NKS-498.pdf |
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